The Markets (as of market close December 14, 2018)

A market correction refers to a decline in a stock or index of at least 10% following a temporary high price. After last week’s losses, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are entering correction territory. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Nasdaq remains ahead of its 2017 closing price. The Russell 2000, which had pushed year-to-date gains of over 10%, now wallows more than 8.0% below last year’s ending value. It appears last week’s sell-off was fueled by increased investor fears of a global economic slowdown resulting from unfavorable reports on Chinese and eurozone economic indicators.

Oil prices closed down last week following two consecutive weeks of increasing prices. Oil prices closed at about $51.16 per barrel by late Friday, down from the prior week’s closing price of $52.21 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) also fell off after several weeks of gains, dropping to $1,242.20 by last Friday evening, down from the prior week’s price of $1,253.70. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.421 per gallon on December 10, 2018, $0.030 lower than the prior week’s price and $0.064 lower than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• The federal government deficit expanded by over $100 billion in November over the prior month. Year-to-date, the deficit sits at $305.4 billion ($201.8 billion last year). In November, the government spent $411 billion, with most of the expenditures going to Social Security ($84 billion), Medicare ($77 billion), and national defense ($62 billion). Receipts last month totaled $206 billion, consisting mostly of individual income taxes ($93 billion) and social insurance and retirement ($93 billion).
• Inflation was rather benign in November for consumers. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in November after rising 0.3% in October. Over the 12 months ended in November, the CPI has increased 2.2%. Energy prices fell 2.2%, pulled down by a 4.2% drop in gasoline prices. The CPI less food and energy inched up 0.2% in November and is up 2.2% over the last 12 months.
• Inflationary pressures at the producer level receded in November. The Producer Price Index edged up 0.1% in November following increases of 0.6% in October and 0.2% in September. Of note, a 0.3% jump in producer services drove the modest November price increase. Producer prices for goods actually decreased 0.4% for the month. Another sign that inflation is easing is evident in the 12-month rate, which was 3.4% in July and now sits at 2.5% for the 12 months ended in November. The index less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3% in November, the third consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in November, prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8%.
• Retail sales increased 0.2% in November from October, and are up 4.2% over November 2017. Notable sales increases occurred in furniture and home furnishing stores, electronics and appliance stores, and web-based retailers. Gasoline stations saw sales drop by 2.3% in November due to falling gas prices.
• Import prices fell 1.6% in November following a 0.5% rise the previous month. The November decrease is the largest monthly decline since a 1.8% drop in August 2015. An 11.0% decrease in fuel prices contributed to the drop-off in import prices. Over the 12 months ended in November, import prices are up 0.7% — the smallest such increase since the index increased 0.2% from November 2015 to November 2016. Export prices fell 0.9% in November after advancing 0.5% in October — the largest one-month drop since January 2016. While agricultural export prices rose 1.8% for the month, nonagricultural export prices, particularly industrial supplies and materials, fell 1.0%. Over the past 12 months, export prices have increased 1.8%.
• According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production rose 0.6% in November after moving down 0.2% in October; the index for October was previously reported to have edged up 0.1%. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged, the output of mining increased 1.7%, and the index for utilities gained 3.3%. Total industrial production was 3.9% higher in November than it was a year earlier.
• According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report for October, the number of job openings ticked up by about 119,000, hires edged up by 196,000, and total separations fell by 85,000. Job openings increased in information (45,000), real estate and rental and leasing (38,000), educational services (20,000), and state and local government education (17,000). The number of job openings decreased in state and local government, excluding education (38,000) and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (33,000).
• For the week ended December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 206,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims inched up 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% for the week ended December 1. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 1 was 1,661,000, an increase of 25,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised up by 5,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

While the latest report on the gross domestic product is out this week, most eyes will be focused on the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. While many expect a quarter-of-a-point rate hike, recent market volatility may sway some committee members to hold off on pushing interest rates higher.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The Markets (as of market close December 7, 2018)

Losses in technology and health-care stocks accounted for much of last week’s market drop. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small caps of the Russell 2000 suffered the largest declines, leading a week of high market volatility. Bank and industrial stocks also took a big hit last week. Oil prices rose on news that OPEC members agreed to cut back production next year. Uncertainty over the economy and a prolonged trade dispute between the United States and China seem to be prompting investors to capture any stock gains and invest in bonds and futures such as gold. The yield on 10-year Treasuries continued to drop as bond prices climbed with increased demand.

Oil prices closed up for the second week in a row, ending last week at about $52.21 per barrel by late Friday, up from the prior week’s closing price of $50.72 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) gained for the fourth week in a row, climbing to $1,253.70 by Friday evening, up from the prior week’s price of $1,227.80. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.451 per gallon on December 3, 2018, $0.088 lower than the prior week’s price and $0.049 lower than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• Job growth slowed in November, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment increased by 155,000 new jobs last month, compared with an average monthly gain of 209,000 over the prior 12 months. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% for the third month in a row. In November, job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 percentage point and 641,000, respectively. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.9%, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.6%, were unchanged in November. The average workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in November. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.06 to $27.35. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by $0.81, or 3.1%.
• The international trade deficit expanded by $0.9 billion in October, growing to $55.5 billion. October exports were $211.0 billion, $0.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $266.5 billion, $0.6 billion more than September imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $51.3 billion, or 11.4%, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $149.3 billion, or 7.7%. Imports increased $200.6 billion, or 8.4%. The deficit with China grew by almost $3 billion in October over September, and sits at $420.8 billion year-to-date — 23% greater than this time last year.
• The IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ for November posted its lowest figure in three months, indicating growth in the manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace than October. More encouraging from this report was the notable growth in new orders, export orders, and employment.
• The November purchasing managers index (PMI®) from the Institute for Supply Management® not only showed growth in the manufacturing sector, but at a higher rate than October. Survey respondents also reported increases in new orders, production, employment, and inventories. Prices and deliveries fell in November from the prior month. While the surveys from Markit and ISM® may differ in some aspects, both reports clearly show that demand remains strong in manufacturing, which is a good sign for the economy.
• According to the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, the services sector expanded in November over October. Business activity, new orders, and prices also grew in October. Only employment decreased slightly from September’s survey results.
• For the week ended December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 231,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims dipped to 1.1% for the week ended November 24. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 24 was 1,631,000, a decrease of 74,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Several reports that serve as indicators of inflationary trends are out this week, including the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the report on import and export prices. Inflation has been inching up slowly, and these indicators aren’t expected to change that trend for this past November.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The Markets (as of market close November 30, 2018)

Stocks rebounded last week, posting their best gains since February. The S&P 500 climbed 4.85% last week, a percentage jump not reached since the end of 2011. Overall, the large-cap indexes and the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed the small caps of the Russell 2000, which rebounded nicely, nevertheless. As has been the case for most of the year, foreign trade made headlines early last week as President Trump threatened to impose further sanctions on China in advance of the Group of 20 summit. However, more positive rhetoric from both the White House and China at the end of the week may have quelled worries of an all-out trade war, at least for the time being. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week implied that the Fed may be rethinking the timing of further interest rate hikes, although another quarter-of-a-point bump in December is still a strong possibility.

Oil prices stabilized following several weeks of losses, ending last week at about $50.72 per barrel by late Friday, up from the prior week’s closing price of $50.39 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) gained for the third week in a row, climbing to $1,227.80 by Friday evening, up from the prior week’s price of $1,223.40. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.539 per gallon on November 26, 2018, $0.072 lower than the prior week’s price but $0.006 higher than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• The second estimate of the third-quarter gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5% — the same rate as reported following the initial estimate last month. The GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2% in the second quarter. Compared to the initial estimate for the third quarter, this rendering indicated consumer spending, the main driver of the GDP, declined 0.4 percentage point to 3.6%, while state and local government spending also came in lower. On the other hand, business inventories expanded significantly, adding to the overall growth of the GDP. The trade deficit, a negative in the calculation of the GDP, averaged $74.6 billion in the third quarter.
• Personal income increased by 0.5% in October. Disposable (after-tax) income also grew by 0.5%. The increase in personal income primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, proprietors’ income, and government social benefits payments. Consumer spending for goods and services rose by 0.6% in October. Within goods, spending for prescription drugs was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas. Consumer prices for goods and services increased 0.2% for the month. Core prices, excluding food and energy, inched up 0.1%. For the 12 months ended in October, consumer prices rose 2.0%. Core prices are up 1.8% over the same period — 0.2 percentage point below the Fed’s target inflation rate.
• The first month of fiscal 2019 saw the international goods trade deficit reach $77.2 billion in October. The deficit was $76.3 billion in September. Exports were $140.5 billion, $0.8 billion less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $217.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than September imports.
• The housing sector continues to stall as new home sales dipped 8.9% in October following a 1.0% drop in September. For the 12 months ended in October, new home sales are down 12.0%. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $309,700 ($321,300 in September). The average sales price was $395,000 ($379,000 in September). The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 336,000, representing a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate.
• For the week ended November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 234,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims remained at 1.2% for the week ended November 17. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 17 was 1,710,000, an increase of 50,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Investors are hoping a favorable employment report this week will favorably influence the stock market.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The Markets (as of market close November 30, 2018)

November proved to be a very volatile month for stocks. By the third week of the month, the benchmark indexes listed here had given back just about all of the gains accumulated during the year. However, a spurt during the last week of November helped push stocks higher by the end of the month. Each of the indexes listed here outperformed their October end-of-the-month closing values, led by the large caps of the S&P 500 and the Dow, followed by the Global Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000. The technology stocks of the Nasdaq edged higher by the close of November, and that index still maintains a sizeable lead year-to-date among the indexes listed here.

Nevertheless, investors head into the last month of the year anxiously, as fears of a slowing economy and growing international trade tensions will likely temper expectations for steady stock gains moving forward. Energy stocks have been hit by falling oil prices, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell below 3.0% as bond prices rose after the Federal Reserve chairman intimated that interest rates may not be increasing as aggressively as previously thought.

By the close of trading on November 30, the price of crude oil (WTI) was $50.72 per barrel, down from the October 31 price of $64.95 per barrel. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.539 per gallon on November 26, down from the October 29 selling price of $2.811 and only $0.006 more than a year ago. The price of gold rose by the end of November, closing at $1,227.80 on the last trading day of the month, up from its price of $1,220.80 at the end of October.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Month’s Economic News

• Employment: Total employment rose by 250,000 in October after adding 180,000 (revised) new jobs in September. The average monthly employment gain over the last 12 months is 211,000. Notable employment increases for the month occurred in leisure and hospitality (42,000), professional and business services (35,000), manufacturing (32,000), health care (36,000), transportation and warehousing (25,000), and construction (30,000). The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in October. The number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 percentage point and 449,000, respectively. The labor participation rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 62.9%. The employment-population ratio increased 0.2 percentage point to 60.6%. The average workweek increased 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in October. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.05 to $27.30. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen $0.83, or 3.1%.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee met in November but declined to raise interest rates, which remained at their current 2.00%-2.25% range. The next meeting is scheduled for December 18-19. Following its September meeting, the Fed forecast one more rate hike this year. However, it may push that rate change into 2019, unless it determines that economic expansion and/or inflation are ratcheting up too fast.
• GDP/budget:According to the second estimate, the third-quarter gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5%. The second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%. The economy has expanded for nine consecutive years, the second longest such streak on record. Spending by consumers and state and local governments receded in the third quarter. Business investment and inventories are up, likely due to companies trying to stockpile in anticipation of tariffs driving import prices higher. October is the first month of fiscal 2019 for the federal government. There was a $100.5 billion deficit in October, with government receipts totaling $252.7 billion, offset by $353.2 billion in expenses. The biggest expenditures in October were for Social Security ($84 billion), national defense ($69 billion), and Medicare ($53 billion). In October the government collected $129 billion in individual income taxes, but only $8 billion in corporate income taxes.

• Inflation/consumer spending: Inflationary pressures were subdued in October, while consumer spending was strong. According to the Personal Income and Outlays report, prices for consumer goods and services rose only 0.2% in October following a 0.1% increase in September. Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy), a tracker of inflationary trends, increased 0.1%. Core prices have increased 1.8% over the 12 months ended in October — 0.2 percentage point below the Federal Reserve’s target for inflation. Consumer spending climbed 0.6% in October after jumping 0.2% (revised) in September. Consumer income (both pre-tax and after-tax) rose 0.5%, respectively, for the month.
• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October after increasing 0.1% in September. Over the last 12 months ended in October, consumer prices are up 2.5%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, climbed 0.2% for the month and are up 2.1% over the last 12 months.
• According to the Producer Price Index, the prices companies received for goods and services jumped 0.6% in October following a 0.2% increase in September. Producer prices have increased 2.8% over the 12 months ended in October. Prices less food and energy gained 0.5% in October, and are up 2.6% over the last 12 months.
• Housing: New home sales fell 8.9% in October after declining 1.0% in September (revised) and are down 12.0% from the October 2017 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $309,700 ($321,300 in September). The October average sales price was $395,000 ($379,000 in September). Inventory rose to an estimated 7.4-month supply, slightly ahead of September’s 7.1 months. Following six straight months of decreases, sales of existing homes increased 1.4% in October. Year-over-year, existing home sales are down 5.1%. The October median price for existing homes was $255,400, down from $258,100 in September. However, existing home prices are up 3.8% from October 2017. Total housing inventory for existing homes for sale fell from 1.88 million in September to 1.85 million in October, rendering a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace.
• Manufacturing:The manufacturing sector slowed in October. Industrial production edged up 0.1% following a 0.3% advance in September. For the 12 months ended in October, industrial production has advanced 4.1% — down from the 5.1% annual gain in September. Manufacturing output increased 0.3% following a 0.2% increase in September. The indexes for mining and for utilities declined 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. New orders for long-lasting durable goods fell 4.4% in October following a revised September report that moved from an 0.8% gain to 0.1% a decline. Durable goods orders excluding transportation inched up a scant 0.1%.
• Imports and exports:The advance report on international trade in goods revealed that the trade gap expanded in October (the first month of fiscal 2019) to $77.2 billion — up from $76.3 billion in September. Compared to the prior month, October exports of goods decreased $0.8 billion to $140.5 billion, while imports rose $0.2 billion to $217.8 billion. Prices for imported goods grew by 0.5% in October after climbing 0.2% (revised) in September. Export prices increased 0.4% in October following no price change in September. Over the last 12 months ended in October, import prices are up 3.5%, while export prices have advanced 3.1%.
• International markets: The British pound remained at historically weak levels, influenced by the ongoing Brexit ordeal. The next major action in the ongoing drama involving the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union occurs on December 11, when the UK Parliament is set to vote on the proposed agreement to leave the EU. Analysts suggest that parliamentary approval of the deal is tenuous at best. A “no” vote could lead to several possible outcomes. On the trade front, heading into a meeting between President Trump with President Xi Jinping of China at the Group of 20 (G20) summit, President Trump threatened additional tariffs on Chinese imports if the meeting did not produce a favorable outcome for the United States.
• Consumer confidence:The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, following an improvement in October. While consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved slightly, consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions waned.

Eye on the Month Ahead

December will close what has been a tumultuous year for the stock market and the economy. Manufacturing, durable goods orders, and real estate are sectors that could use a push as 2018 closes. The employment sector should add more new jobs in December, although wage inflation isn’t expected to surge. Entering the holiday season, consumer spending, which has been strong, should advance further, while prices are expected to remain stable.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

MARKET WATCH: NOVEMBER 19, 2018

The Markets (as of market close November 23, 2018)

Trading volume may have been slower than usual during the Thanksgiving holiday week, but that didn’t stop the downward spiral for stocks. Tumbling oil prices, which fell to their lowest levels in over a year, pulled energy shares downward and raised fears of an economic slowdown. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here fell sharply last week, headed by the Dow, followed closely by the Nasdaq. As stocks regularly hit new highs earlier in the year, pushing values higher than their 2017 closing marks, all of those gains have frittered away these past few months. Of the indexes listed here, only the Nasdaq is still ahead of its 2017 year-end price — but only barely. Each of the other indexes have fallen notably below last year’s respective values.

Oil prices continued to fall, plummeting to $50.39 per barrel by late Friday, down from the prior week’s closing price of $56.77 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) gained for the second week in a row, climbing to $1,223.40 by Friday evening, up from the prior week’s price of $1,221.70. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.611 per gallon on November 19, 2018, $0.075 lower than the prior week’s price but $0.043 higher than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• The pace of home building picked up in October, but applications for building permits and home completions each fell below their respective September rates. Applications for building permits were 0.6% below their September pace, while home completions dropped 3.3% from their September estimate. On the other hand, housing starts were 1.5% above their September figures, which should add to new home inventory for November. A comparison of year-on-year rates shows how much the housing sector has slowed. Building permits are down 6.0% from October 2017, housing starts are off by 2.9%, and housing completions are 6.5% below last year’s pace.
• For the first time in seven months, sales of existing homes expanded. Total existing home sales increased 1.4% in October from September, yet are still down 5.1% compared to a year ago. The median existing-home price in October was $255,400, which is down from September’s price of $256,900 but up from the October 2017 price ($246,000). Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased from 1.88 million in September to 1.85 million existing homes available for sale, representing a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace.
• New orders for durable goods fell for the third time in the last four months in October. New orders dropped 4.4% from September. Transportation equipment, down 12.2% following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.6% in October, while unfilled orders declined 0.2% following eight consecutive monthly increases. Inventories, down two of the last three months, were virtually unchanged from September.
• For the week ended November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 224,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 5,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims remained at 1.2% for the week ended November 10. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 10 was 1,668,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The last week of the month offers several important economic reports, including the second report on gross domestic product for the third quarter. The initial report showed the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5%. With consumer spending continuing to show strength, the GDP is not expected to vary significantly from last month’s growth rate.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The Markets (as of market close November 16, 2018)

Volatility best describes last week in the market, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value. Apparently, investors may be having trepidations about ongoing business growth and fear that the economy is slowing. Declining oil prices have also contributed to diminishing stock index values. Even optimistic rhetoric between the United States and China wasn’t enough to quell investors’ concerns. Following last week’s slide, the indexes listed here are moving closer to their 2017 year-end values. In fact, the small caps of the Russell 2000 have given back all of the gains garnered during the year and are now below last year’s closing mark. Even the Nasdaq, which has led the way for much of the year reaching double digit year-to-date gains, is now only roughly 5.0% ahead of its 2017 year-end value. Long-term bond prices rose as the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 12 basis points last week.

Oil prices continue to fall, dropping to $56.77 per barrel by late Friday, down from the prior week’s closing price of $59.83 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) reversed course from prior weeks, climbing to $1,221.70 by Friday evening, up from the prior week’s price of $1,209.90. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.686 per gallon on November 12, 2018, $0.067 lower than the prior week’s price but $0.094 higher than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• October, the first month of fiscal year 2019, saw the government deficit reach $100.5 billion (59% higher than last October). Receipts totaled $252.7 billion. The government spent $353.2 billion. Of receipts, individual income taxes accounted for $129 billion, while corporate income taxes contributed $8 billion. The largest government expenditures in October were for Social Security ($84 billion), defense ($69 billion), and Medicare ($53 billion).
• Prices consumers paid for goods and services rose 0.3% in October, after inching up 0.1% in September. Over the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index has risen 2.5%. An increase in gas prices was responsible for over one-third of the October price increase. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% for the month, and is up 2.1% over the last 12 months.
• A spike in prices for gas, building materials, and autos pushed retail sales up 0.8% in October over the prior month and 4.6% higher than October 2017. Sales, excluding the aforementioned items (otherwise referred to as “control group sales”), rose a more moderate 0.3% for the month. Restaurant sales actually fell 0.2%, following monthly declines in September and August. Heading into shopping season, this report gives an indication that sales will be healthy, if not robust, in November and December.
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for imports increased 0.5% in October following a 0.2% increase in September. This is the highest monthly increase in import prices since a 0.9% jump in May. Over the last 12 months ended in October, import prices have increased 3.5%. Expanding fuel prices (up 3.3%) were a major contributor to the import price increase. Excluding fuel, import prices edged up 0.2% for the month. Export prices advanced 0.4% after recording no change in September. The October advance was the largest monthly increase since the index rose 0.7% in May. For the 12 months ended in October, export prices are up 3.1%.
• Industrial production edged up 0.1% in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases in mining (-0.3%) and utilities (-0.5%). Overall, the index for industrial production is 4.1% ahead of October 2017.
• For the week ended November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 216,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims increased 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% for the week ended November 3. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 3 was 1,676,000, an increase of 46,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised up 7,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Thanksgiving week is typically a slow one for market activity. However, there are a few reports out this week that bear watching. October’s housing starts and existing home sales reports are out this week. The housing sector has been slow and is unlikely to pick up much steam as the fall season blends into winter.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The Markets (as of market close November 9, 2018)

Despite a fall at the end of the week, stocks rode a midweek push to finish in the black. Oil prices officially reached bear territory, hitting their largest price drop in many years. What looked like a very strong week ended with just minor gains for each of the indexes listed here. The Dow led the way, closing last week almost 3.0% ahead of its prior week’s value. The S&P 500 was close behind, gaining over 2.0%. Domestically, the tech stocks of the Nasdaq and the small caps of the Russell 2000 were hit hardest by last Friday’s sell-off, each index losing most of the gains achieved earlier in the week. Year-over-year, the Nasdaq continues to lead the way, followed by the Dow and the S&P 500. The Russell 2000, which had made considerable gains earlier in the year, has given most of them back. Feeling the ongoing effects of global-growth concerns, the Global Dow has lost value from its 2017 closing mark.

Down 21% from its October high, the price of crude oil (WTI) continued to slide on concerns of oversupply, as prices fell to $59.83 per barrel by late Friday, down from the prior week’s closing price of $62.89 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) lost value again last week, dropping to $1,209.90 by Friday evening, off from the prior week’s price of $1,234.50. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.753 per gallon on November 5, 2018, $0.058 lower than the prior week’s price but $0.192 higher than a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• As expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee refrained from raising the federal funds rate following its meeting last week. While describing economic activity and job gains as strong, the Committee noted that business investment has moderated. There is one more rate hike in the offing this year, which, if it occurs, would follow FOMC’s December 19 meeting.
• Producer prices climbed 0.6% in October following a 0.2% rise in September. Much of the increase last month was attributable to a 1.6% jump in trade services. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, producer prices inched up 0.2%. Year-over-year, producer prices are up 2.9% (2.8% excluding food, energy, and trade services).
• After reaching a high of 7.3 million job openings in August, the number of job openings fell by 284,000 in September, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report. Notable job losses occurred in professional and business services (118,000), finance and insurance (82,000), and state and local government (67,000). The number of hires in September was 5.7 million, after reaching a revised series high of 5.9 million in August. There were about 5.7 million total separations, which includes quits, layoffs, and discharges. Overall, there were still many more job openings than those considered unemployed.
• While growth in the services sector continued to show strength in October, expansion slowed compared to September. According to the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, business activity, new orders, employment, and prices each grew in October, but at a slower pace than in the prior month.
• For the week ended November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 214,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims remained at 1.1% for the week ended October 27. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 27 was 1,623,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the prior week’s level.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first Treasury budget report for fiscal 2019 is out this week with the release of October’s figures. The 2018 budget deficit was over $100 billion greater than the 2017 deficit. The Consumer Price Index and the report on retail sales for October are released this week. Consumer prices have gone up, but not at the pace of consumer income and spending.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.